تحلیل ارتباط علّی بین شیوع کوید 19 و تجارت جهانی

صادقی عمروآبادی, بهروز

doi:10.30465/jnet.2022.36996.1747

تحلیل ارتباط علّی بین شیوع کوید 19 و تجارت جهانی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسنده

بهروز صادقی عمروآبادی

استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

10.30465/jnet.2022.36996.1747

چکیده

شیوع پاندمی کوید 19 از یک بیماری موثر بر دستگاه ایمنی انسان و حوزه بهداشت و سلامت شروع شد و اکنون به اقتصاد تمامی کشورهای جهان و اقتصاد بین الملل سرایت کرده است. به عبارت دیگر این بیماری به طور مستقیم بخش خدمات مثلا گردشگری را با بحران جدی مواجه کرده و سایر بخش ها را با محدودیت های گسترده اقتصادی و تا حدودی تا مرز ورشکستگی پیش برده است. وضعیت بیکاری و اشتغال در بسیاری از کشور ها بحرانی شده و کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی در بسیاری از کشورها گزارش شده است. سوالی که مطرح می شود، آیا جهانی شدن به شیوع کرونا در جهان دامن زده است و آیا شیوع بیماری، اثرات قابل ملاحظه ای بر حجم تجارت و جهانی شدن داشته است؟ به بیان دیگر آیا کشورهایی با شاخص های بازتر از منظر جهانی شدن، مثلا درجه بازبودن تجاری باعث شیوع بیشتر این بیماری در جهان شده اند؟ و آیا شیوع بیماری باعث کاهش معنادار جریان های تجاری در دنیا شده است؟ این مطالعه به تحلیل ارتباط بین تجارت جهانی و شیوع کوید 19 در بین 70 کشور جهان دو گروه کشورهای در حال توسعه (50 کشور) و توسعه یافته (20 کشور) با استفاده از روش داده های ماهیانه پانل انتهای 2019 تا ابتدای سال 2021 پانل (Panel) و روش تخمین GMM می باشد. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از اثرات معنادار شیوع بیماری بر کاهش جریان های تجاری در بین کشور ها می باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان می دهد که شیوع بیماری کوید 19علیت گرنجر کاهش جهانی شدن و حجم تجارت کشورها است. در نهایت پیشنهادهایی جهت کاهش اثرات منفی بیماری های همه‌گیر بر اقتصاد جهانی مطرح می شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the causal Relationship between Global Trade and the Prevalence of Covid 19

نویسنده [English]

behrouz sadeghi amroabadi

Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

چکیده [English]

The outbreak of Covid 19 pandemic started from a disease affecting the human immune system and health and now it has spread to the economies of all the countries of the world and the international economy. In other words, this disease has directly faced a serious crisis in the service sector, such as tourism and has pushed other sectors with broad economic constraints and to some extent to the brink of bankruptcy. Unemployment and employment have become critical in many countries, and declining GDP has been reported in many countries. The question is, has globalization fueled the spread of the corona in the world? And has the outbreak had a significant impact on trade volume and globalization? In other words, are countries with more open indicators from the perspective of globalization, for example, have the degree of openness made the disease more prevalent in the world? And has the outbreak significantly reduced business flows in the world? This study analyzes the relationship between global trade and the prevalence of Covid 19 among 70 countries of the world, two groups of developing countries (50 countries) and developed countries (20 countries) using the monthly panel data and GMM method from the of 2019 to the beginning of 2021. Research results Indicates the significant effects of the disease outbreak on the reduction of trade flows between countries. The results also show that the prevalence of Granger causality between Covid 19 and the reduction of globalization and trade volume of countries. Finally, suggestions for reducing the negative effects of epidemics is about the global economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Globalization
Global Trade
Covid Prevalence 19
Granger causality JEL Classification: F14
F62
H75

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