شاخص های درآمدی بودجه ای و رابطه علی توسعه مالی رشد اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران،

چکیده

رابطه علی میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی یکی از موضوعات چالش­برانگیز در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان-مالی است. در واقع رابطه میان این دو متغیر کلیدی وابسته به ستون­های توسعه مالی است که می­تواند اثرگذاری معناداری بر این رابطه داشته باشد. در این میان، شاخص­های بودجه­ای به عنوان نماینده­ای از ثبات اقتصاد کلان دارای اثرگذاری معناداری بر رابطه توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی هستند. از این رو در این مقاله، اثرگذاری شاخص­های بودجه­ای در بخش درآمدی بر رابطه علی توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی 1396-1357 مورد مطالعه قرار گرفته است. به این منظور ابتدا شاخص چندبعدی توسعه مالی بر اساس شاخص­های بانکی مورد تأیید بانک جهانی محاسبه شده است. سپس بر اساس آزمون علیت دو متغیره بر مبنای الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM)، رابطه علی میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی مورد سنجش قرار گرفته است. سپس اثرگذاری شاخص­های بودجه­ای بر رابطه علی میان این متغیر بر اساس آزمون علیت سه متغیره بر مبنای الگوی فوق مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه، عمده شاخص­های درآمدی دارای اثرگذاری معناداری بر رابطه علی میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی بوده­اند. با این حال، عمده شاخص­های بودجه­ای مانع از برقراری ثبات اقتصاد کلان شده است. همین امر موجب شده تا رابطه علی میان توسعه بخش مالی و رشد اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه از بین برود و اقتصاد کشور نتواند از مواهب توسعه سیستم مالی در بخش بانکی برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی بالاتر استفاده کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Income Budgetary Indices and Financial Development-Economic Growth Causal Relationship in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Rasoulizadei 1
  • Ali Reza Daghighi Asli 2
  • Marjan Damankeshideh 2
  • Gholamreza Geraeinejad 2
  • Majid Afsharirad 3
1 Ph.D. student in Economics, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the most challenging topics in the macroeconomic literature. In fact, the relationship between these two key variables depends on the pillars of financial development that can have a significant impact on this relationship. Meanwhile, budget indicators as a representative of macroeconomic stability have a significant impact on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of budgetary indicators in the revenue sector on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth during the period 1978-1397 has been studied. For this purpose, first, the multidimensional index of financial development has been calculated based on the banking indicators approved by the World Bank. Then, based on the bivariate causality test based on the vector error correction model (VECM), the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth has been investigated. Then, the effect of budgetary indicators on the causal relationship between this variable based on the three-variable causality test based on the above model has been done. Based on the results of this study, the main income indicators have a significant effect on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. However, major budgetary indicators have prevented macroeconomic stability. This has led to the elimination of the causal relationship between financial sector development and economic growth and the country's economy cannot benefits from developing the financial system in the banking sector to achieve higher economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Development
  • Economic Growth
  • Income Indices
  • Causality VECM Model JEL Classification: G21
  • O10
  • H72

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 05 آذر 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 16 اسفند 1399

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