اثرات آزاد سازی تجاری زیربخش‌های کشاورزی اوراسیا و ایران: رویکرد تعادل عمومی چند منطقه‌ای

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

چکیده
بخش کشاورزی به لحاظ سهم آن در تولید و اشتغال و نیز امنیت غذایی از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است، بنابراین، ارزیابی اثرات آزاد سازی تجاری زیربخش‌های کشاورزی از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است، در همین راستا، در این پژوهش اثرات کاهش تعرفه‌ی وارداتی زیربخش‌های کشاورزی ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا بر رفاه و تراز تجاری، بر اساس الگوی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی و نسخه 10 پایگاه داده‌های آن، طی دو سناریو (کاهش 25 درصدی و کاهش 50 درصدی نرخ تعرفه‌ها) تحلیل شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بیشترین تأثیر منفی بر رفاه ایران مربوط به کاهش نرخ تعرفه‌‌ی واردات ایران از اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در زیر بخش "ذرت، جو، ارزن و سایر غلات" و بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه ایران مربوط به کاهش نرخ تعرفه‌‌ی واردات ایران از اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در زیر بخش گندم است و نیز بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا مربوط به کاهش نرخ تعرفه‌‌ی واردات ایران از اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در زیر بخش گندم است و همچنین تأثیر منفی قابل توجهی بر رفاه اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در سناریوهای مختلف در زیر بخش‌های کشاورزی مشاهده نمی‌شود. در ایران، بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر تغییر تراز تجاری مربوط به زیر بخش سبزی‌جات و بیشترین تأثیر منفی بر تغییر تراز تجاری مربوط به فعالیت گندم است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Agricultural Sub-Sector of the Eurasian and Iran: Multiregional General Equilibrium Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • yaser balaghi inalo 1
  • Mehdi Nejati 2
  • Mojtaba Bahmani 2
  • Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 3
1 PhD student in department of economics and management, Shahid Bahonar University
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
3 Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

 
The agricultural sector is very important in terms of its contribution to production and employment as well as food security; therefore, assessing the impacts of trade liberalization under the agricultural sub-sector is of particular importance. On this direct, in this study, the effects of importation tariff reduction under the agricultural sub-sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance, based on the model of the World Trade Analysis project and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (reduction 25% and 50% reduction of tariff rates) are analyzed. The results of this study display that the most negative impact on Iran's welfare is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union in the sub-sector of “corn, barley, millet and other cereals”. Moreover, the most positive impact on Iran's welfare is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union under the “wheat” sector. In addition, the most positive effect on the welfare of the Eurasian Economic Union is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union under the “wheat” sector, Also, there is no significant negative impact on the welfare of the Eurasian Economic Union in different scenarios under the agricultural sector. In Iran, the most positive effect on trade balance changing is been related to the activity of vegetables and the most negative effect on trade balance changing is related to activity of wheat.
 
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Liberalization
  • Eurasian Economic Union
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model
  • Agriculture Sector
  • Tariff . JEL Classification: C68
  • D58
  • Q56
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