بررسی فضایی تأثیر صادرات و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر اشتغال (منتخب کشورهای منطقه منا)

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تبریز

2 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد توسعه ،دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)

3 استاد دانشکده معارف اسلامی و اقتصاد دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)

چکیده

هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تأثیرات صادرات غیرنفتی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر اشتغال، در یک چارچوب متحد، با بررسی اطلاعات 14 کشور منطقه منا در سال‌های 2000 تا 2018 با استفاده از مدل اقتصادسنجی فضایی می باشد. متغیرهای توضیحی مورد بررسی در این تحقیق شامل صادرات، درجه باز بودن تجاری، تولید ناخالص داخلی، صادرات نفت، سرمایه ثابت و دستمزد واقعی می‌باشد که به‌صورت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و کلی مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد صادرات و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به‌عنوان متغیرهای مهم مورد بررسی نقش بسزایی در افزایش اشتغال کشورها به‌طور مستقیم و غیرمستقیم دارد؛ اما درجه باز بودن تجاری نتوانسته تأثیر مثبتی بر اشتغال داشته باشد. علاوه بر این، دستمزد واقعی و سرمایه ثابت نیز توانسته‌اند در افزایش اشتغال کشورهای مورد بررسی مؤثر واقع شوند. متغیر صادرات نفتی نیز دارای تأثیر منفی بر اشتغال بوده است که منفی بودن صادرات نفتی مورد انتظار و مطابق نظریات تجربی است. با توجه به نتایج احصاء شده در این مقاله بهبود تجارت بین‌الملل و افزایش سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، توسعه صادرات و اجتناب از سیاست خام فروشی در جهت افزایش اشتغال توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial Survey on the Impact of Export and Foreign Direct Investment on Employment

نویسندگان [English]

  • tayyebeh pourmandbakhshayesh 1
  • mohammad vejdani 2
  • mrhdi sadeghi 3
1 d
2 d
3 d
چکیده [English]

The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of non-oil exports and foreign direct investment on employment, in a unified framework, by reviewing the information of 14 MENA member states in 2010-2018 using the Spatial econometrics  model. The explanatory variables studied in this study include exports, the degree of trade openness, gross domestic product, oil export, fixed capital and real wages, which were examined directly and indirectly and in general. The results of this study showed that exports and Foreign Direct Investment as important variables of this research have a direct and indirect role in increasing the employment of MENA member states. But the degree of trade openness has not had a positive impact on employment. In addition, real and fixed wages have been able to increase the employment of the countries under study. The variable oil export have had a negative impact on employment, which is a negative predicted oil export and according to empirical views. According to the results it is recommended to increase employment, improve international trade and reducing crude oil sales

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • foreign direct investment
  • employment
  • MENA countries
  • Spatial Durbin Models JEL Classification : : C31
  • F21
  • E24
  • R12
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