کیفیت نهادی، تجارت و توسعه گردشگری: رویکرد مدلسازی خطی چند سطحی

رفیعی دارانی, هادی; گوهری قرائی, لیدا

doi:10.30465/jnet.2024.48070.2119

کیفیت نهادی، تجارت و توسعه گردشگری: رویکرد مدلسازی خطی چند سطحی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار گروه اقتصاد گردشگری، پژوهشکده گردشگری، سازمان جهاددانشگاهی، مشهد، ایران

² دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد گردشگری، پژوهشکده گردشگری، سازمان جهاددانشگاهی، مشهد، ایران

10.30465/jnet.2024.48070.2119

چکیده

این مقاله سعی در پاسخگویی به این سوال دارد که کیفیت نهادی و تجارت به چه صورت می‌توانند بر توسعه گردشگری موثر باشند و کدام عامل نهادی در میان شاخص‌های حکمرانی خوب بیشترین تاثیر را بر گردشگری خواهد داشت. برای این منظور، میانگین وزنی برای دو شاخص کیفیت نهادی و توسعه گردشگری از روش تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) محاسبه شد. سپس با در نظر گرفتن امکان تفاوت در کشورها و مناطق، از تجزیه و تحلیل چند سطحی (MRM) استفاده و برآوردها در سطح 5 منطقه آفریقا، کشورهای عربی، آسیا و اقیانوسیه، اروپا و آمریکای شمالی، آمریکای لاتین و دریای کارائیب و در 119 کشور در بازه زمانی 2002 تا 2020 انجام شد.
نتایج ضریب همبستگی بین طبقه‌ای نشان داد که بیشتر تفاوت‌ها بین کشوری می‌باشد و اینکه کشورها در چه منطقه‌ای قرار دارند ملاک تفاوتها در توسعه گردشگری نمی‌باشد. همچنین متغیر سال نیز با 048/0 تاثیرگذاری مثبت و ‌‌معنی‌دار بر متغیر گردشگری در مدل ظاهر شده است. نتایج مرتبط با ضرایب متغیرها نشان داد که کیفیت نهادی، شاخص تجارت و درآمد سرانه به صورت مثبت و ‌‌معنی‌دار و تورم به صورت منفی بر توسعه گردشگری اثر دارند. همچنین از میان شاخص‌های انفرادی، حکمرانی خوب، ثبات سیاسی و فقدان خشونت و کیفیت نظارتی با علامت مثبت و کنترل فساد با علامت منفی به صورت معنی داری بر شاخص کلی گردشگری تأثیرگذار بودند.
طبقه بندیJEL: Z32, E02, F04, C23

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Institutional Quality, Trade, and Tourism Development: A Hierarchical Linear Modelling Approach

نویسندگان [English]

Hadi Rafiei Darani ¹
Lida Gohari Gharaie ²

¹ Assistant Professo, Tourism Economic Department, Institute of Tourism Research, ACECR (Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research), Mashhad, Iran

² PhD of Economic, Tourism Economic Department, Institute of Tourism Research, ACECR (Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research), Mashhad, Iran

چکیده [English]

This article tries to answer the question of how institutional quality and trade can be effective in tourism development and which institutional factor among the indicators of good governance will have the greatest impact on tourism. For this purpose, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was used to calculate a weighted average for two indices of Institutional Quality and Tourism Development. Then, taking into account the possibility of differences in countries and regions, using Multilevel Regression Modeling (MRM) and estimates in 5 regions of Africa, Arab countries, Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and North America, Latin America and the Caribbean Sea, and in 119 countries were made between 2002 and 2020.
The results of the inter-class correlation coefficient showed that most of the differences are between countries and the region in which the countries are located is not the criterion for the differences in tourism development. Also, the year variable has appeared with 0.048 positive and significant influence on the explanatory variable in the model. The results related to the coefficients of the variables showed that institutional quality, trade index, and per capita income will have a positive and significant effect on the tourism index, and inflation will have a negative effect on the development of tourism. Also, among the individual indicators of good governance, Political Stability, and Regulatory Quality with a positive sign and corruption control with a negative sign appeared significantly in the results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Tourism development
Governance
Trade
Multilevel Regression Modeling (MRM)

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