نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه خاتم
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه خاتم.
3 دکتری از موسسه عالی آموزش وپژوهش مدیریت وبرنامه ریزی
4 کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه خاتم
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
abstract of the article:
The issue of the budget deficit and its aggregation in the form of debt accumulation has always been a concern in scientific and policy circles. The accumulation of government debt can affect investment and thus economic growth, and this effect can vary in different economic conditions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government debt and private sector investment with emphasis on the effect of debt accumulation in this regard. The results of this model show that, firstly, the relationship between government debt and private sector investment is negative, and secondly, as government debt increases, the impact of government debt on private sector investment decreases. Therefore, enlarging the government at the expense of increasing borrowing cannot have a positive effect on the activities of the private sector. Also, the impact factor of inflation and oil revenues on private sector investment is negative and positive, respectively, and the impact factor of both is significant. In addition, all good fit tests in the model were examined. The results of the studies showed that the model is reliable in terms of these tests.
Keywords: Government Debt, Private Sector Investment, Smooth Transition Regression Model
JEL: H50 ، E22، ، H62
کلیدواژهها [English]
زین العبادی، عاطفه (1398)، " بررسی تعامل میان بدهیهای دولت و سرمایهگذاری خصوصی با استفاده از الگوی رگرسیون گذار ملایم (STR) در اقتصاد ایران"، پایاننامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه غیردولتی خاتم.
سلمانی، یونس؛ یاوری، کاظم؛ اصغرپور، حسین و بهرام سحابی (1397)؛ "اثرات اقتصاد کلان انواع بدهیهای دولت در ایران"، فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، دوره هشتم، شماره 32.
سلمانی، یونس؛ یاوری، کاظم؛ سحابی، بهرام و حسین اصغرپور (1395)؛ "اثرات کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت بدهیهای دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران"، فصلنامه علمی-پژهشی مطالعات اقتصاد کاربردی ایران، سال پنجم، شماره 18، 107-81.
سخنور، محمد و رویا حسینپور (1399)، "بررسی رابطههای رشد اقتصادی و توسعه زیرساختهای مخابراتی"، توسعه و سرمایه، دوره 5، شماره 1.
فتاحی، شهرام؛ حیدری دیزگرانی، علی و الهام عسگری (1393)؛ "بررسی پایداری بدهی دولت در اقتصاد ایران"، فصلنامه سیاستهای اقتصادی و مالی، سال دوم، شماره 6، 86-67.
فخرحسینی، سید فخرالدین (1393)؛ "کنترل کسری بودجه و بدهی دولت: ضرورتی برای ثبات قیمتها"، مجموعه مقالات بیست و چهارمین همایش سالانه سیاستهای پولی و ارزی.
فلاحتی، علی و مریم حیدریان (1397)؛ "بررسی اثرات آستانهای سرمایهگذاری دولتی و بدهی عمومی در یک مدل رشد اقتصادی برای استانهای ایران؛ با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون انتقال پانلی (PSTR)"، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی- پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، سال نهم، شماره 33، صص. 56-41.
موسوینیک، سیدهادی و شعله باقری پرمهر (1398)؛ "ساخت سری زمانی بدهی دولت و برآورد نسبت بهینه بدهی دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی و فضای مالی در اقتصاد ایران"، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، سال نوزدهم، شماره اول، صص. 52-29.
مولایی، محمد و ابوالقاسم گلخندان (1393)؛ "اثر بدهیهای خارجی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران"، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، سال چهاردهم، شماره 53، صص. 108-73.
بازمحمدی، حسین و اکبر چشمی (1385)، "اندازه دولت در اقتصاد ایران"، مجموعه پژوهشهای اقتصادی، شماره 29، بانک جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
Apere, O. T. (2014): “The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment in Nigeria: Evidence from a nonlinear Model”, International Journal of Research in Social Science, 4(2), 130-138.
Barro, R. J. (1974): “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
Barro, R. J. (1979): “on the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971.
Becker, T. (1995): “Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence”, The economic research Institute Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Paper No. 71, 1-21.
Blanchard, O., Perotti, R. (2002): “An Empirical Characterization of changes in Government Spending Taxes on Output”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 4, 1329-1368.
Calderon, C.; Fuentes, J. (2013); "Government Debt and Economic Growth", IDB Working paper series No. IDB-WP-424.
Checherita-Westphal, C., and P. Rother. (2012): “the Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and Its Channels: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area”, European Economic Review, 56(7), 1392-1405.
Chen, Ch. C, Yaob, S., Hue, P. and Linf, y. (2016): “Optimal Government Investment and Public Debt in an Economic Growth Model”, China Economic Review.
Clements, B., Bhatacharya, R. & Quoc, N. (2003): “Extenal debt, Public investment and Growth in low-income countries”, International monetary fund, JEL classification, NO: F34, O40.
Cuestas, J., Regis, P. (2017): “On the dynamics of sovereign debt in China: Sustainability and structural change”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 68, 356-359.
Curtaso, A. R., (2011): “How to assess Public Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence for The Advanced European Countries”, Romanian Journal of Fiscal Policy, 2(2), 20-43.
Easterly, W., Rebelo, S. (1993): “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 417-458.
Eldan, A. (1997): “Financial Liberalisation and Fiscal Repression in Turkey: Policy Analysis in a CGE Model with Financial Markets”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(1), 79-117.
Elmendorf, D. and N. G., Mankiw (1999): “Government Debt”, in J. B. Taylor and M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1c, Amesterdam, North-Holland.
Friedman, M. (1968): “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Economic Review, 58, 1-17.
Georgescu, G., (2014): “Public debt, sovereign risk and sustainable development of Romania”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol.8, 353-361.
Ghali, K. H. (2003): “Government Spending, Budget Financing and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience”, Journal of Developing Areas, 36(2).
Haque, N. (1992): “Fiscal Policy ad Private Sector Saving Behavior in Developing Countries”, IMF staff papers.
Hernandez, E.c (2002): “Investment Growth and Budget Deficit Ceiling: A Review of the Issue”, The johns Hopkins University.
Huang Y, Pagano M, Panizza U (2016) Public debt and private firm funding: evidence from Chinese cities CEPR Discussion papers no 11489 Huang Y, Panizza U, Varghese R (2018) Does public debt crowd out corporate investment? International evidence CEPR Discussion papers no. 12931
Husnian, M.I. (2010): “Expenditure growth nexus: Does the source of finance matter?”, Working Paper, Islamabad University.
Jimenez, c. I. G. (2011): “Economics of U.S. Government Debt Accumulation: Submitted to The Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical college in partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness”.
Kasidi, F. and Said, M. (2013): “Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania”, Advances in Management & Applied Economics, 3(4).
Kormendi, R.c (1983): “Government Debt, Government Spending and Private Sector Behavior”, American Economic Review, 73: 994-1010.
Kultarni, K., Erickson, G. (1995): “Is Crowding out Hypothesis Evidence in LDCS? A Case of India”, Indian Economic Journal, 43, 116-126.
Mabula, S and Felician , M. (2019), “The Effect of Public Debt on Private Investment in Tanzania”, Research in agriculture and applied economics
Majumder, A. M. (2007): “Does Public Borrowing Crowd-Out Private Investment? The Bangladesh Evidence”, Policy Analysis Unit, Working Paper Series: WP 0708.
Minea, A., Parnet, A. (2012): “Is High Public Debt always Harmful to Economic Growth?”, Reinhart and Rogoff and some Complex nonlinearities, Association Francaise De Cliometrie (AFC), Working Papers 8.
Mitra, P. (2002): “Has Government Investment Crowded out Private Investment in India”.
Modigiliani, F., Sterling, A. (1990): “Government Debt, Government Spending and Private Sector Behavior”, A further Comment American Economic Review, No 76.
Mugumisi, N. (2021). “The impact of public external debt on private investment. Evidence from Zimbabwe under the multi-currency system”. Journal of Economic Info, 8(1), 33-47.
Osinubi, T.S., Dauda, R.O.S and Olaleru, O.E., (2010): “Budget deficits, external debt and economic growth in Nigeria”, Singapore Econ. Rev., 3(6), pp. 455-491.
Pegkas, P. (2018); "The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience", MDPI.
Saeed, Noman, Hyder, Kalim, Ali, Asghar and Ahamad, Eatzaz (2006). The Impact of Pubic Investment on Private Investment: A Disaggregated Analysis. The Pakistan Development Review, 45(4), 639- 663
Sheng, Tung Chen, and Chiang Lee, Chein, (2005): “Government Size and Economic Growth in Taiwan: A Threshold Regression Approach”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 1(27).
Tanner, E., Samake, I. (1979): “Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty: A Vector Autoregression Approach; Applied to Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey”, IMF Working Paper.
Thilanka, c; Ranjith, J (2020), “The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience”, Business and Social Research.
Thomas, Jr. (2000): “Money Banking and Economic Activity”, Wiley and Sons.
Vanlaer, W., Picarelli, M. & Marneffe, W. Debt and Private Investment: Does the EU Suffer from a Debt Overhang?. Open Econ Rev 32, 789–820 (2021).