The purpose of this research is to modify the Stochastic frontier gravity model by adding variables of political relations, crisis, and economic sanctions using fuzzy logic techniques and economic similarity between countries to provide a more accurate assessment of Iran's export efficiency and potential. The data required for this study was collected from 41 major importing countries of Iranian raisin products during 2001 and 2022. The modified model shows less deviations in the selection of target markets for raisin exports. Considering the Russian market as an example of Iran's raisin export target, the modified model, taking into account sanctions and political relations, has performed better than the normal model. In the model, the average efficiency increased to 62 percent and the export gap decreased to $10 million, while in the conventional model these values were 51 percent and $16 million, respectively. By considering political variables and sanctions, this research provides more accurate picture on the actual efficiency of raisin exports and better identifies the export gap. Trade models should go beyond purely economic considerations and take into account political relations and market realities to make the selection of target markets more effective.