نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The purpose of this paper is to determine the best trading partners of Iran based on Business cycle synchronization criterion using continuous wavelet method. The method is used to investigate coherency between GDP of Iran and GDP of 13 Iran’s trading partners during1960-2022, in this paper. Wavelet method is selected because of its ability and its adequacy to analyze synchronization bydecomposing the comovement of variables in time-frequency determination of time lagging and leading variables compared with other common methods like Cyclical filters, dynamic co-relationThe trading partners of Iran are selected based on,their share of trading with Iran,availability of their GDP data and their geoeconomics importance for Iran’s trade policy.According to the results tcoherency between Iran and its Asian trading partners (China,Turkey,India&Pakistan) have been positive and significant for %65 of statistically observed cases during the time period under review.In contrast for Iran and euro pen countries like France,Italy,and Belgium there have been co -herency for a limited time prior to 1990 decadeThese results shows that factors like international sanctions and political developments have transformed the business cycle synchronization between Iran and its trading partners from Europe to Asia, in recent decades.The Asian partners could be better partners for Iran.
کلیدواژهها English