تأثیر نامتقارن بیکاری بر ضریب ظرفیت بار (LCF) در کشورهای منتخب منطقه MENA: آزمون فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی فیلیپس (EPC)

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‌آموخته دکتری اقتصاد بخش عمومی، دانشگاه لرستان

10.30465/jnet.2025.49103.2145

چکیده

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر متقارن و نامتقارن بیکاری بر ضریب ظرفیت بار (LCF) به‌عنوان شاخص جدید و جامع پایداری محیط‌زیست و آزمون فرضیه EPC در 11 کشور منطقه MENA طی سال‌های 2000-2022 در قالب یک مدل STIRPAT است. به این منظور از آزمون‌های ریشه واحد و هم‌جمعی پانل با وابستگی مقطعی و برآوردگر میانگین گروهی تلفیقی در دو مدل متقارن (PMG-ARDL) و نامتقارن (PMG-NARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل متقارن نشان می‌دهد که بیکاری اثر مثبت و معناداری بر LCF داشته است. نتایج برآورد مدل نامتقارن نیز حاکی از تأثیر مثبت و معنادار تکانه‌های مثبت بیکاری و تأثیر منفی و معنادار تکانه‌های منفی بیکاری بر LCF می‌باشد؛ به‌گونه‌ای که اندازه اثرگذاری تکانه‌های منفی بزرگ‌تر است (تأیید اثر نامتقارن). استحکام نتایج با به‌کارگیری برآوردگر Cup-FM تأیید شده است و بر این اساس نیز نمی‌توان فرضیه EPC را رد کرد. بر اساس آزمون علیت پانلی دومیترسکو و هورلین (2012) نیز رابطه علیت دوسویه بین متغیرهای LCF و بیکاری (و تکانه‌های مثبت و منفی آن) تأیید می‌شود. بر اساس سایر نتایج، جمعیت کل و مصرف انرژی، اثر منفی و معنادار بر LCF داشته است و فرضیه منحنی ظرفیت بار (LCC) به شکل N مورد تأیید قرار می‌گیرد.
طبقه‌بندیJEL :
C23, E24,, Q53, Q57.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Asymmetric Effect of Unemployment on Load Capacity Factor (LCF) in Selected MENA Countries: Analysis of the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) Hypothesis

نویسنده [English]

  • abolghasem golkhandan
Ph.D. in Public Sector Economics, Lorestan University
چکیده [English]

the main purpose of this research is to investigate the symmetrical and asymmetrical effect of unemployment on the load capacity factor (LCF) as a new and comprehensive indicator of environmental sustainability and analysis of the EPC hypothesis in 11 countries of the MENA region during the years 2000-2022 in the form of a STIRPAT model. For this purpose, unit root and panel cointegration tests with cross-sectional dependence and pooled mean group estimator have been used in two symmetric (PMG-ARDL) and asymmetric (PMG-NARDL) models. The estimation results of the symmetrical model show that unemployment had a positive and significant effect on LCF. The estimation results of the asymmetric model also indicate the positive and significant impact of positive unemployment impulses and the negative and significant effect of negative unemployment impulses on LCF; in such a way that the effect size of negative impulses is larger (confirmation of asymmetric impact). Based on Dumitrescu & Hurlin's (2012) panel causality test, the two-way causality relationship between LCF and unemployment variables is confirmed. Based on other results, total population and energy consumption have a negative and significant effect on LCF, and the hypothesis of an N-shaped load capacity curve (LCC) is confirmed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Unemployment؛ Load Capacity Factor؛ Asymmetric Effect؛ Pooled Mean Group؛ Environmental Phillips Curve JEL Classification: C23
  • E24
  • Q53
  • Q57

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 خرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 14 مرداد 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 23 شهریور 1403

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