Investigating the effects of membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the possibility of creating commercial links in the trade network of post-Soviet countries; Random Graph Model (ERGM) approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 Assistant Professor of Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

3 Associate Professor of Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

10.30465/jnet.2023.44315.1999

Abstract

In recent years, many researchers have been interested in studying trade as a network. This is possible based on graph concept and using interconnected trade data . Despite sharing a common origin, the post-Soviet countries have taken different commercial routes due to different political, geographic, economic, and cultural factors. In this study, we identify the structural model of the post-Soviet country network and use it to examine the effects of Shanghai Cooperation Organization membership on trade relations.In this regard, the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) is used to estimate parameters related to network and non-network configurations and attributes.
The findings of our study indicate that the ERGM model has the same network structure across different time periods (years 2019, 2017 and 2021) and that the coefficients associated with conventional configurations have the required significance at all times. The network is based on the configurations and Other variables, including variables related to node and edge attributes are less important while being significant. Also, membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a specific covariate is meaningful and important.Also, the results of the network survey indicate that the results of joining the unions should be considered as whole ,and considering it alone could be misleading.

Keywords

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 19 January 2023
  • Revise Date: 13 April 2023
  • Accept Date: 17 June 2023

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